The Debts of a Nation

Easily I agree but I contemplate the list inform s...

2010-02-08T07:19:46.256-05:00

Easily I agree but I contemplate the list inform should prepare more info then it has.

Amiable post and this enter helped me alot in my c...

2010-02-02T13:10:03.411-05:00

Amiable post and this enter helped me alot in my college assignement. Thank you seeking your information.

The quants got greedy in April. Per DJ newswire a...

2009-05-14T17:02:00.000-04:00

The quants got greedy in April. Per DJ newswire article, 50% of XLF was still held by the shorts as of late April. That provided extra juice when the squeeze came.

The long preferred bank equity trade was profitable all by itself. There was no need to short the common stock. Of course, the hedge on shorting the common was buying calls.

SO in a perverse way it was a self-perpetuating mechanism.

I get it. Make the squeeze and reap the CDS payou...

2009-05-14T09:46:00.000-04:00

I get it. Make the squeeze and reap the CDS payout.

The only problem is that the quants playing this game are destroying companies to goose their own profits.

This is of course does nothing for the economy at large. Instead it is destructive.

Profits for the few at the cost of the many should be banned.

ella

Thank you for all your contributions. Miss your p...

2009-05-12T11:29:00.000-04:00

Thank you for all your contributions. Miss your posts on the SKF board. (I rarely post there, but still read it frequently, it has gotten a bit trashy since this "bull run") Would like your opinion on ADM or DBA for an IRA account. Thanks JP.

Kevekev@yahoo.com

Keep up the great work, it will pay off.

http://seekingalpha.com/page/submit-an-article J...

2009-05-09T22:01:00.000-04:00

http://seekingalpha.com/page/submit-an-article

JP, you should (if you want to of course), submit your next good article on Seeking Alpha, to get that "certification".

You are a good writer, (far better than I). Heck, I don't even use correct grammer most of the time. I have always been borderline illiterate. I have always been one of those top tier math/science, low tier english students.

Next good thoughts I have, I am going to be sending to seeking alpha tho, see what happens. Be nice to get that stamp to put on your blog, etc.

fwiw

Thanks PI. I have been trading corn, wheat, and s...

2009-05-08T22:53:00.000-04:00

Thanks PI. I have been trading corn, wheat, and soybeans through ETF/ETNs mostly but am planning to switch over to options on futures soon. Just paper trading those now.

I suggest you get a free CME news for tomorrow subscription on the CME web site. It gives a great fundamental and t/a analysis of the ag markets at eod every day - straight from the pits.

Welcome to the blogosphere. I am happy to see we s...

2009-05-08T21:38:00.000-04:00

Welcome to the blogosphere. I am happy to see we share a mission to explain the financial babble of all the experts (who missed out to signal the worst downturn in history.) Added you to you my reading list as soft commodities are my blind spot. I only sense we're gonna see lots of dramatic action in this sector in the near future. Keep the world informed on the true green shoots.

Can you elaborate. How can you profit when buying ...

2009-05-07T15:26:00.000-04:00

Can you elaborate. How can you profit when buying bonds of the company and then shorting the stock on the stock market ?
Seems contra intuitive to me.
And at the same time you have to pay CDS premiums to whoever insured you ?

@tsc2009 All the central banks have turned on the...

2009-05-07T10:13:00.000-04:00

@tsc2009

All the central banks have turned on the monetary taps. The ECB just cut rates again. And yes, these banks all lend to each other, etc.

The sharp downturns in all the global indices was pretty synchronized so there's no reason this rally wouldn't be.

The more volatile exchanges - Japan, Canada and Hong Kong are way up despite bad news - I'm talking individual stocks as well as the indices. See Magna or Manulife - two of Canada's largest.
England is in serious trouble (they don't even pretend there's a recovery starting there) yet even their FTSE is sky-high.
Throw in oil prices too.

The big question is, how long can this all go on for?

That be one reason for this rally in RE then, righ...

2009-05-02T23:31:00.000-04:00

That be one reason for this rally in RE then, right?

Interesting...why now? Are their memories that short?

Ha - I like being right - July corn broke $4 again...

2009-04-29T18:29:00.000-04:00

Ha - I like being right - July corn broke $4 again. Even lean hogs surged higher.

Good stuff people - thanks for posting.

2009-04-29T18:28:00.000-04:00

Good stuff people - thanks for posting.

IDWT - Spotted your blog through Zero Hedge. Nic...

2009-04-29T11:41:00.000-04:00

IDWT -

Spotted your blog through Zero Hedge. Nice work.

For a fascinating take on CDS/derivatives (an earlier post of yours) I highly recommend the following post below.

The Conclusions piece of the post discussess a fascinating concept - "Derivatives: The New Private Currency" - totally blowing me away. As much as I have been trying to make sense of our nonsensical situation, some of the thoughts in here are very provocative: how derivatives have become financial banks own "private" currency and so much bigger a currency than central banks and governments combined, shadow hyperinflation (possibly here or very near), etc.

here's the link:

http://www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/press/151108.php

If the above link does not work, you can also access it through my blog at:

http://darkcloudstlmo.blogspot.com/2009/04/derivatives-21st-century-currency-and.html

Bottom line: The central banks and governments are owned by the financials and others who are in derivatives.

Makes sense to me.

Best regards.

2009-04-29T11:37:00.000-04:00

This comment has been removed by the author.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Just some clarif...

2009-04-28T21:49:00.000-04:00

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Just some clarifications:

1. If this rally is "Frontrunning the CDs Trade, how do you explain the worldwide rallies?

2. Are the rallies coordinated worldwide?

twc2009

The most common mortgage modifications are listed ...

2009-04-28T21:13:00.000-04:00

The most common mortgage modifications are listed below:

lowering the mortgage interest rate
reducing the mortgage principal balance
fixing adjustable interest rates within the mortgage
increasing the loan term throughout the mortgage
forgiveness of payment defaults and fees
or any combination of the above

Check out this public service site: http://mortgagemodificationinfo.org

I don't know for sure. But after earnings season ...

2009-04-27T15:42:00.000-04:00

I don't know for sure. But after earnings season is finished would seem like a good time for prices to reflect fundamental reality.

Thanks for the info so in your opinion how/when do...

2009-04-27T02:01:00.000-04:00

Thanks for the info so in your opinion how/when does this end or will it continue until we hit so high that positions switch again?

Strength of domestic economy will sustain the exte...

2009-04-26T21:52:00.000-04:00

Strength of domestic economy will sustain the external challenges. A nation should maintain confidence so that economy will remain afloat.

I am not a goldbug by any means. We remain in a d...

2009-04-25T16:10:00.000-04:00

I am not a goldbug by any means.

We remain in a deflationary bias. More money has been destroyed than the govts can ever print.

BUT...

I'm also watching "follow the leader" here w/what the Asians are doing in response to the economic crisis.

Watch Japan and China. Japan continues to suck up to the US and blow trillions of their money buying treasuries - witness the last TIC report.

China is diversifying like mad into currency swaps, barter agreements, and now gold. They do not have the same blinders on as the Japanese leaders do - blinded as they are by a colonial era attachment to the US export markets.

So what? Goldbugs have been predicting this forev...

2009-04-25T15:56:00.000-04:00

So what? Goldbugs have been predicting this forever.

Gold $5000 by this time next year!

The guys in DC are the biggest gangsters.

2009-04-25T15:55:00.000-04:00

The guys in DC are the biggest gangsters.

Thank you so much for clarifying these points. I ...

2009-04-22T15:57:00.000-04:00

Thank you so much for clarifying these points. I am not a credit trader so this thing is still relatively new to me.

I am used to seeing the spread instead of price so that led to some confusion there.

Me, Anonymous again. did some digging for us...fro...

2009-04-21T23:54:00.000-04:00

Me, Anonymous again. did some digging for us...from 4/9 close, average CMBX tranche (across all vintages/quality) fell modestly from $35.51 to $35.4. The AAAs mostly underperformed with only the oldest (1 and 2) vintage BBB/BBB- actually seeing any price rise but that was minimal. The tricky thing with looking at optically massive spread changes (like BBB.2 -163bps in the last two weeks or so is that it only moved the price about $0.20 up because the tranches coupon is only 60bps and it trades at 4200bps!). Hope this helps.