The Debts of the Spenders: Soybean Supply Predicted to Tighten

Most grains (corn, wheat, and soybeans) w/the exception of rice (which closed lower) surged ahead of bullish fundamentals today. Next week holds some key releases from the USDA including its wheat and soy projections.

The crop progress report (to be released Monday) is projected to show continued ENSO wet conditions in the Midwest.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to cut its estimates for 2008-09 soybean ending stocks, with a strong export pace seen as the catalyst for the adjustment, according to analysts.

The USDA will also provide its first projections for the 2009-10 carryout when it releases its May supply and demand reports Tuesday.

The average of estimates from analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect 2008-09 U.S. ending stocks to come in below the previous month’s estimate of 165 million bushels. The average of analysts’ estimates surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires project 2008-09 marketing year ending stocks at 130 million bushels from a range of 86 million to 148 million bushels.

The USDA’s report is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Tuesday.

Analysts anticipate if the USDA makes changes to the 2008-09 balance sheet, it will adjust usage figures, with strong potential for an increase in exports.

Source: CME News for Tomorrow