The Continuation of Quantitative Easing

There is quantitative easing and then there is quantitative easing. Confused? So are some market observers.

After Ben Bernanke's speech last week regarding the end of Quantitative Easing 2.0, the FOMC Committee inserted a small caveat that it will continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns. The policy is necessary to keep interest rates artificially low. The irony here is that the yields on Treasurys remains very low even without Federal Reserve intervention b/c of widespread, lingering fears about debt bubbles in Europe, political uncertainty in the Middle East, and tightening in China.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-May-Buy-300-Billion-in-bloomberg-1457319130.html

The Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve will continue buying Treasuries after the end of QE 2.0 until it decides not to anymore.

Chinese Government Claims It Isn't Speculating on African Farmland

Chinese investment in sub-Saharan Africa has been on a climb for the past few years. The lack of arable land in China is forcing the Chinese government to invest in alternate means of food security. Other investment locales include the Philippines, Cuba, and South America.

China Envoy: Govt Doesn't Advocate Companies Buying Africa Farmland
A top China envoy to Africa said the government doesn't advocate Chinese companies' acquisition of farmland in Africa and hasn't encouraged Chinese farmers to move to the continent.

While China has sought to strengthen ties with Africa in part to feed its need for resources, the comments by Liu Guijin, China's special envoy for African affairs, at a briefing to reporters on China-Africa relations, distance government policy from what the ambassador called a "sensitive" issue of an apparent rising presence of Chinese agricultural interests in developing foreign farmland for domestic food security purposes.

On whether Beijing was behind the migration of Chinese farmers from Hebei province to Africa, Liu acknowledged that some Chinese farmers had moved to some African nations in private capacity, but said the government wasn't helping them.

"The government knows that grabbing farmland is a very sensitive issue...and will not encourage it," he said.

Media reports have suggested that thousands of Hebei farmers have moved to more than a dozen African countries in recent years, setting up farming businesses in places such as Nigeria, Zambia, Sudan and Kenya.

Liu said some private Chinese companies may have their own projects in placing local personnel in Africa to develop agriculture, but Beijing's policy is aimed at sharing agricultural technology with Africa.

China is home to a fifth of the world's population but has only about 7% of global arable land, making food security a top government priority.

Chinese companies have made strides in similar ventures in Latin America and Southeast Asia.

Earlier this month, one of China's largest farming companies, Heilongjiang Beidahuang Nongken Group, signed a joint venture with Argentina's Cresud SA to buy land and farm soybeans.

Cresud is one of Argentina's top farming companies, controlling more than 1 million hectares of farmland.

Heilongjiang Beidahuang's chairman, Sui Fengfu, told Dow Jones Newswires in March that the company planned to buy 200,000 hectares of overseas farmland this year, and that Latin America was a key target.

The company is already farming 2 million hectares outside China.

Heilongjiang Beidahuang is also spending $1.5 billion to lease and develop farms on 300,000 hectares in Argentina's Rio Negro Province.

The company plans to grow wheat, corn, soybeans, fruits, vegetables and wine grapes for export to China over 5-10 years.

However, the Latin American deals are not land acquisition projects and appear to be crafted to avoid a backlash against foreign ownership of farmland in Argentina.

Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez has introduced legislation limiting land purchases by foreign individuals and companies to 1,000 hectares in rural areas.

Chinese companies are also playing an increasingly important role in developing farmland in the Philippines and Cuba, among other countries.

Source: CME News for Tomorrow

The Bottom Line: China's leaders are growing increasingly concerned about food security for its vast population. Foreign ventures in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia have grown to the extent that they are provoking domestic backlash among native constituents.

India Will Join China as a Net Corn Importer

India is now following China as a net grain importer. For pundits who question the underlying US trade deficit, agricultural exports continue to compose a core component of international trade.

Corn and corn derived products are used in the manufacture of animal feed products. As populations grow richer in emerging market nations they also develop an appetite for more complex proteins - e.g. meat.

India To Be Net Corn Importer By 2014-15 -US Grain Council CEO
India will join China to become a net corn importer by 2014-15, placing increased pressure on world corn markets, the head of the U.S. Grains Council said.

Speaking at an agriculture investment summit here, Thomas Dorr forecast that India will import as much as 300,000 metric tons of corn in 2014-15, rising to 808,000 tons in 2018-19. In 2009-10 India exported 995,000 tons of corn.

"We believe that in four short years India will turn into a consistent importer," he said.

This shift is expected to come as Chinese demand for corn rockets. Dorr said that despite a push by Beijing to improve domestic production, the Asian giant will increasingly rely on imports to meet rising consumption by its rapidly-expanding livestock industry.

"China's government is now coming to grips with the fact that food security and food self-sufficiency aren't necessarily the same thing," he said.

World corn production is expected to set a new record in the coming 2011-12 season and yet rising demand from emerging countries and ethanol blenders mean global corn ending stocks are expected to fall by 3 million tons, to near-historic lows.

This pressure is only expected to increase in the future. According to the World Bank, developing country populations with incomes of more than $16,000 a year are expected to rise to 2.1 billion by 2030 from 352 million in 2000, driving demand for meat.

Dorr, who is also former under secretary for rural development of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said producers and investors have a huge opportunity to benefit from such demand growth, but it will require openness to technology, trade and investment.

The use of genetically-modified crops, which is already widespread in the U.S. corn industry but extremely restricted in other parts of the world like the European Union, will also become increasingly important in order to meet growing demand, he said.

"Non-scientific objections [to GM] must be weighed against the moral imperative to feed a world of 9 billion people by 2050," he said.

Source: CME News for Tomorrow

The Bottom Line: Both India and China will continue to experience food volatility as their immense populations grow. A government focus (rightly so) on social order and stability will have the retarding effect of hampering domestic growth in discretionary consumer spending.

McKinsey Health Insurance Report Attracts Controversy

American politicians are finally getting the courage to tackle entitlement spending. For months Congress has been the scene of political theater on par w/the Greek tragedy playing out in Europe.

The latest installment in the political saga comes courtesy of McKinsey, the giant consulting firm that recently published a report that under ObamaCare, 1/3 of all US employers would drop health care coverage. The findings have resulted in a media frenzy by the insurance industry and Congress. Questions over the methodology, sample size, and types of questions are being raised.

Source: http://www.benefitspro.com/2011/06/20/mckinsey-who

The bottom line: Entitlement spending is a vaunted pillar of political spending. But it is coming under increasing attack by budget hawks. A recent survey by McKinsey has thrown more fuel to the fire. For now, there are more questions than answers.

Chinese Food Prices Rise on Flooding

Floods Drive Up Food Prices In China

Flooding across eastern, southern and southwestern China has killed at least 175 people and is causing significant damage to vegetable crops, helping to drive up food prices at a time when the government is already fighting to contain inflation.

The flooding, triggered by heavy rains that started early this month, has caused widespread suffering in more than a dozen provinces and regions, with state media calling it the worst in decades in some areas.

In addition to the 175 known deaths, 86 people are missing and some 1.6 million people have been displaced by the flooding, which has caused more than $5 billion in damage, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said. Official forecasts have predicted further rain in a number of the most-battered provinces.

China goes through regular cycles of drought and flooding, and both have been relatively severe over the past year. The recent drought was called the worst in 50 years in some parts of China, and continues to affect almost five million hectares of farmland nationwide -- including in different areas of some of the same provinces now afflicted by floods.

The flood-related effect on prices for now may be fairly local, but the rising cost of vegetables has already been a leading factor in pushing inflation to near-three-year highs. Food prices in May were up 11.7% from a year earlier, compared with a 5.5% increase in the overall consumer-price index.

The flooding has reduced vegetable output by about 20% from levels a year earlier in the worst-hit places, particularly in the eastern province of Zhejiang, according to state media.

Xinhua news agency cited Jin Changlin, a Zhejiang agricultural official, as saying that vegetable prices are likely to continue to increase or remain high for about two weeks.

More than 432,000 hectares of crops have been destroyed in flood-affected provinces around the country, including 241,600 hectares in Zhejiang -- about an eighth of the province's total.

At one big market in Hangzhou, Zhejiang's capital, prices of fruits, vegetables and grains have risen about 40% on average, according to Xinhua. It didn't provide its basis of comparison. Higher food prices were also reported in Anhui and Jiangxi provinces, although the sizes of the increases were unclear.

In last year's fourth quarter, vegetables and other agricultural products including cotton, wheat and edible oils fueled a sharp surge in inflation, with prices of common produce like garlic and ginger doubling from a year earlier.

Source: CME News for Tomorrow

The Bottom Line: While summer is typically a cyclical low for agricultural futures unforseen events such as calamitous weather can have a disproportionate impact on prices. Global warming is contributing to unpredictable and savage weather as humanity continues to ignore the long term effects of the environment in favor of short term gains.

Taking a Closer Look at Brazilian Growth

Here is another article about Brazil:

"The level of loans overdue by 90 days has risen rapidly in recent months to 6.1 per cent and is expected to reach 8 per cent by the end of December, said Ricardo Loureiro, president of Experian Latin America, the credit rating agency"

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c0b3beb8-9a9c-11e0-bab2-00144feab49a.html

Here is the problem I see w/Brazil and many other natural resource exporters. The government is relying on exports (raw materials and agriculture) and credit to grow GDP. But they are neglecting the domestic manufacturing and consumption sectors.

While exports are an old story, credit growth is something new - and it's giving an artificial boost to spending power and making people feel richer - but as many Americans learned this is an illusion. The growth projections are very impressive given the nature of leverage (which is what we are all here to discuss anyway).

But meanwhile the stronger real is making it very hard for Brazilian factories to compete w/foreign imports. We cannot speak about Brazil w/o mentioning China. (America used to be important to Brazil but has lost its place).

It is ironic that Brazil is exporting its resources to China only to have them return in the form of finished goods. Everything from clothes, electronics, tools, and household goods are cheaper to buy than Brazilian produced items. I would not be surprised if Brazilian factories are having financial difficulties. This situation will eventually contribute to what we have in America - cheap imports at the price of lost jobs and bankrupt manufacturers.

The Bottom Line:
For now investors continue to pour money into Brazil b/c there are few alternatives. Growth - both natural resource & credit based - will continue to power the country through the foreseeable future.

Chinese Investment in Argentina Continues to Grow

Chinese investment in Argentina continues unabated. In response to a populist backlash among legislators, Chinese firms are entering joint ventures and other co-operative partnership deals with Argentinian companies.

China Adds Argentina's Farmlands To Its Commodities Shopping List
Chinese investment is flooding into Argentina as the Asian giant expands its global commodity hunt from the raw materials used in industry to the foodstuffs needed to feed its 1.3 billion citizens.

China's investment in Latin America hit $15.6 billion during the 12-month period through the end of May, nearly three times greater than the year-ago period, consulting firm Deloitte said in a report. Of that amount, Brazil received about 60% and Argentina close to 40%.

During the last three years, more than 70% of China's investment in the region went to energy and minerals, but farming is attracting more attention as the country seeks to fill its bowls from foreign fields.

China already buys the bulk of Argentina's soybean exports, its top crop and largest source of export revenue. Soybeans are mainly used as livestock feed in China, where meat consumption is rising along with personal incomes. At the same time, urbanization is shrinking the amount of arable land available in China.

Last week, China's largest farming company, Heilongjiang Beidahuang Nongken Group, inked a joint venture with Argentina's Cresud SA to buy land and farm soybeans.

Cresud is one of Argentina's top agriculture firms with control over more than 1 million hectares (2.47 million acres) of farmland that produce grain, cattle and milk.

Heilongjiang Beidahuang's chairman, Sui Fengfu, told Dow Jones Newswires in March that the company plans to buy 200,000 hectares of overseas farmland this year, and that Latin America is a key target. The company is already farming 2 million hectares of land outside China.

Heilongjiang Beidahuang is also spending $1.5 billion to lease and develop farms on 300,000 hectares in Argentina's Rio Negro Province. Over a five- to 10-year period, the company plans to grow wheat, corn, soybeans, fruits, vegetables and wine grapes for export to China.

The Cresud and Rio Negro deals appear aimed at avoiding a backlash against foreign ownership of farmland in Argentina. President Cristina Fernandez has introduced legislation limiting land purchases by foreign individuals and companies to 1,000 hectares in rural areas.

Heilongjiang Beidahuang's incursion in agriculture comes hot on the heels of heavy Chinese investment in Argentina's oil sector.

In February, Occidental Petroleum Corp. sold its local assets to China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. for $2.5 billion. Last year, China's Cnooc Ltd., in partnership with Argentina's Bridas Corp., agreed to buy a 60% stake in Pan American Energy from BP PLC for $7.1 billion.

China's hunger for raw materials has also led it into mining, with MCC Minera Sierra Grande SA, a unit of state-run China Metallurgical Group, buying the Sierra Grande iron mine in Rio Negro Province in 2006. The mine, which had been shuttered since 1991, made its first shipment of iron-ore concentrate to China in February.

Deloitte predicts that Chinese investment will continue pouring into Latin America, but expects a diversification in the future into other industries such as manufacturing, infrastructure and finance.

Though its growing exponentially, China's investment still makes up a relatively small share of total foreign direct investment flows to the region.

Foreign direct investment in Latin America grew 40% on the year to $113 billion in 2010, and is expected to rise 15% to 20% this year, according to the U.N.'s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.

Source: CME News for Tomorrow

The Bottom Line: Chinese investment in Argentinian agriculture remains high but has been adjusted in recent months to account for greater co-operation with domestic firms in order to counter allegations of foreign land grabbing.