Sunday, November 23, 2008

The Debts of the World: Bulls Are Not Dead - They Moved to Treasuries

This is one of the oldest trading correlations:

bullish treasuries = bearish equities

and vice versa: bearish treasuries = bullish equities.

When yield starts to get negative or close to 0 then you have a turning point (13 week or 3 month note). After all traders can't give the govt more money than they're already lending out for very long. The same thing happened one month ago in October when TED was above 4.0.

This time the catalyst is not TED but rather the fear of collapsing CRE (commercial real estate) and the rapid decline in Citicorp's share price. I'm seeing dividends on commercial REITs at nearly 100%! That is ridiculous. And completely oversold. Citicorp however is anothe story.