Thursday, December 18, 2008

The Debts of the Spenders: Gold Update

I have gotten some mail from goldbugs who apparently hate my calls. They have also been flooding my mailbox with the COMEX gold short conspiracy theory.

The COMEX theory states that gold is basically being shorted on the commodities exchange by banks in a coordinated effort. I will not bother addressing the merits of such a case except to say that ALL commodity classes have fallen significantly. Oil, agriculture, and industrial metals have declined much more substantially than gold. Gold retains intrinsic value but the possibility of gold $5k/ounce remain remote.

Please readers you misunderstand me. I am not an enemy of gold or precious metals.

I have no position in gold. I am not shorting gold. Nor do I have a long position.
Gold rallies on 2 things: 1) FEAR and 2) INFLATION.

1) There remains a lot of fear in the market. Who knows where the next time bomb is?

2) Global govts continue to cut interest rates. Highly inflationary (for them).

I prefer to remain neutral and just watch gold. I believe that there are better inflation/fear plays out there - like agriculture. People need to eat food. They do not need to eat gold bars.


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