Monday, April 28, 2008
Although more recent estimates place Brazilian oil deposits at 33 billion barrels, it will take at least until 2012 for the first operations to go on line.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
America can't keep taking foreign money for granted.
Japan owns more Treasuries than any other nation. After raising their holdings by $9.2 billion to $620.6 billion between March and July 2007, Japanese investors trimmed that stake by $34 billion through February, the Treasury said April 15.Asian investors outside Japan are also pulling back. Money managers in China, the second-biggest overseas holder of Treasuries, with $486.9 billion, and South Korea say they favor debt in Europe, equities or commodities.
Companies have soaked up excess production capacity. An index that measures manufacturing capacity against demand has been at or below zero for nine quarters, indicating there are few idle factories, according to the central bank's Tankan survey of business sentiment. The index stood at 31 points in March 2002 as the economy emerged from its last recession.
``People tend to blow hot or cold on Japan,'' Jessop said. ``At the moment, the pendulum has swung too far. If you're looking at developed economies, Japan is going to be one that surprises on the upside this year.''
Friday, April 25, 2008
"International organized criminals have penetrated the energy market and other strategic sectors of the U.S. and world economy. As U.S. energy needs continue to grow, so too could the power of those who control energy resources.
International organized criminals are manipulating securities exchanges and engaging in sophisticated fraud schemes that rob U.S. investors, consumers, and government agencies of billions of dollars.
International organized criminals exploit the U.S. and international financial system to move illegal profits and funds, including sending billions of dollars in illicit funds through the U.S. financial system annually. To continue this practice, they seek to corrupt financial service providers globally."
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Coincedentally, former Treasury Sec. Robert Rubin, who championed the repeal, became Citigroup's Chairman immediately after the repeal took effect.
Dozens of lenders, led by College Loan Corp. and CIT Group Inc., stopped making federally guaranteed loans because the U.S. cut subsidies and investors hurt by the subprime-mortgage crisis shunned bonds backed by student loans. At least 178 schools have applied since Feb. 28 to let students borrow from the direct program, compared with 80 that applied for the program in all of last year.
And these are only the initial findings. Brazil only seriously began drilling research in 2007.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
English, for better or worse, has become the lingua franca of finance, business, science and the Internet. The longer any nation resists the need to improve its English skills, the more it limits its potential.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Monday, April 21, 2008
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Ah, Las Vegas, Sin City, the legitimate child of organized crime. While traditionally known for gambling and material excess, the city is also home to the highest foreclosure rates in the US. Bus tours typically take visitors to casinos.
Now, daring entrepeneurs have started a "foreclosure express" that promises desperate homeowners a chance to sell while also appealing to busloads of deep pocket tourists. Instead of splurging your latest winnings on flashy cars, jewelry, or lavish parties, why not pick up a home or two?
Friday, April 18, 2008
But while Iceland declared, in effect, an end to the speculative attack, Standard & Poor's, the credit rating agency, cut its sovereign rating for the country.
It reduced its long-term foreign currency rating to A from A+ and put it on negative outlook, citing concerns over banks' reliance on external funding.
"The banks' higher funding costs, combined with the recent 27 per cent depreciation of the Icelandic krona, increase the chances that the economy will contract more and for a longer period than we had foreseen," S&P said in a statement.
Equities rallies in a bear market are inevitably a poor bet. In volatile times, technical analysis models tend to fail and fundamentals reign supreme. The fundamentals of the world economy are rising inflation and volatile commodity prices as central banks prove unwilling to enact a coordinated, coherent monetary policy. Instead, we have disparate actors moving in opposing directions. For ex: The Fed is hell bent on debasing the dollar. Bernanke is supported by (unsurprisingly) the Asians and Arabs. Meanwhile the ECB stubbornly fights 2x digit inflation by refusing to cut rates and has even threatened to raise them.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Processing activities, to meet internal demand or for re-export, has also mushroomed. As with steel, DMCC has been progressively tailoring its business proposition to the local, regional, and international base metals community, and is fast developing a highly attractive commercial proposal for businesses to enter and grow within this sector.
The low-hanging fruit has been picked already, so now it takes more time, innovation and money to get metals out of the ground. Also, new financial markets are opening all the time - most notably OUTSIDE of the West. Dubai, Shanghai, Mumbai, etc. are all vibrant exchanges.
(Government Currencies - notably the Greenback) All that's tarnished . .. .
Generally, gold's rise is due to the dollar's fall.
In the short term, the US faces the sub-prime crisis, bloated money supply, high oil prices, Iraqi war, consumers unwilling to spend, and rising unemployment. AND that's just in the short term. The US also faces a demographic explosion of older folks that is poised to suck trillions into an inefficient and bloated health-care system.
Level 1 assets are those for which a ready market exists, Level 2 assets are those for which a market exists for comparable securities and Level 3 assets are those for which no market exists, which are to be valued by use of mathematical models.
Without that, the population will decline through war and famine. So in the end Malthus was right. Oil will start a catastrophic decline around 2010-11, called the "supply cliff". This happens to individual fields, oil producing regions and nations. Earth as a whole will be no different. Globalisation and all its attendant "isms" will end.
Cheap oil allows machine agriculture, plastics, fertilizers and our socioeconomic ideologies. Declining expensive oil terminates it all. Thats simple math.
The Greenspan Fed cut rates aggressively in 2001, and total mortgage debt (TMD) growth accelerated to what should have been an 10.4%. With rates dropping to as low as 1.25% in 2002, TMD expanded 12.1%. With rates dropping to 1.0% in 2003, TMD increased another 11.9%. Despite TMD increasing by a stunning 38% in three years, Fed funds remained at 1% through the first half of 2004. TMD growth surged to 13.5% in 2004, followed by 13.4% in 2005, and 11.6% in 2006.
Conclusion - The Greenspan Fed sat idly as mortgage credit doubled in just six years.
The USA is scaring away foreign investment with its xenophobic CFIUS Council.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
The world is slowly waking up to the possibility of a gold standard. After Nixon unilaterally abolished Breton Woods in 1971, the dollar became the sole arbiter international reserve currencies. Unfortunately, more than 30 years of debt bubbles have bred an astonishing sense of entitlement among US policymakers.
They rely on the assumption that foreigners in developing nations will continue to lend funds despite lower returns. This assumption is a monetary fiction that severely distorts risk premiums and encourages exchange rate anamolies. The excess liquidity present in the U.S. only accelerates economic problems. The expansionary actions of the Federal Reserve have trickled down to affect other levels of the U.S. economy with the same reckless disregard for caution. With few sources of enduring domestic wealth, American homeowners have been encouraged to use their homes as credit backed vehicles. Credit cards and other forms of unsecured debt have proliferated.
Yet, developing nations have largely matured and their leaders are slowly realizing the consequences of free spending U.S. policymakers.
A. The Debts of a Nation - Introduction
B. The Debts of the Spenders - News on the US, OECD, and other Developed nations
C. The Debts of the Lenders - News on the Developing World
D. The Debts of the World - News on Systemic Risk, Futures and Equities markets
- ► 2011 (58)
- ► 2010 (53)
- ► 2009 (473)
- The Debts of the Lenders: Brazilian Oil Challenges...
- The Debts of the Lenders: Dollar Slides as Asians ...
- The Debts of the Lenders: Growth Prospects . . . ....
- The Debts of the World: Exchange Traded Currency F...
- The Debts of the Spenders: FBI Hysterics Accuse "T...
- The Debts of the Spenders: The Costs of Glass-Stea...
- The Debts of the Spenders: The Trouble with Stockp...
- The Debts of the Spenders: Students Lose Access to...
- The Debts of the Lenders: Crude Oil in ....Brazil?...
- The Debts of the World: Gold Fillings
- The Debts of the Lenders: I speak good Engrish
- The Debts of the Spenders: The Rise of the Agro-In...
- The Debts of the Spenders: BOE Offers $200 Billion...
- The Debts of the Spenders: Foreclosure Express Tou...
- The Debts of the Spenders: British Banks Close to ...
- The Debts of the Spenders: Iceland interest rates ...
- The Debts of the Spenders: Equities Rally = Sucker...
- The Debts of the Lenders: Like White on Rice
- The Debts of the Lenders: Foreigners Overpaying fo...
- The Debts of a Nation: 21st Century Trading in Fut...
- The Debts of the Lenders: Dubai Commodity Exchange...
- The Debts of the Lenders: Shards of a Golden Crown...
- The Debts of the Spenders: Auction Rate Investigat...
- The Debts of the Spenders: Level 1, 2, and 3 Debt ...
- The Debts of the Spenders: Countrywide Courtroom C...
- The Debts of the Spenders: Fed Had Notice of Sub-P...
- The Debts of the Lenders: Crude Awakening in Russi...
- The Debts of the World: Peak Credit and Peak Oil
- The Debts of the Spenders: The Verdict on Greenspa...
- The Debts of the Lenders: Israeli Bailout
- The Debts of the Spenders: Devaluing Treasuries
- The Debts of the Spenders: Biting the Hand that Fe...
- The Debts of the Spenders: A Crisis of Fiat
- The Debts of a Nation
- Introductory Note
- ▼ April (35)