Saturday, August 8, 2009

The Debts of the Lenders: El Nino To Bring Bullish Brazilian Soy Crop

Bullish for supply. Bearish for prices. Earlier this year, concerns about drought in South America prompted frenzies in Argentina and Brazilian exchanges. But now, favorable weather should impact crop prices in the opposite direction.

El Nino To Bring Favorable Rain To Brazil’s Soy Farmers

El Nino should bring favorable rains to Brazil’s southern soy growing states, raising the likelihood of a record-breaking 2009-10 soy crop, according to soy specialists. Brazil’s southern states of Parana, the No. 2 soy producer, and Rio Grande do Sul, the No. 3 soy producer, suffered from a prolonged drought during the 2008-09 crop season. As a result, Parana in particular experienced hefty soybean losses.

The upcoming 2009-10 crop, however, is expected to be a bumper crop of more than 60 million metric tons compared to 57.1 million tons from the 2008-09 crop, according to private consultancies such as Cerealpar, AgRural and Celeres. The 2008- 09 has already been harvested.

Inclement weather could hamper the yield, but industry analysts expect this year that El Nino, a global weather phenomenon that usually warms temperatures in the Pacific, will favor farmers this year.

“El Nino traditionally brings wet weather to the south of Brazil and this should remove the threat of the drought that occurred for the 2008-09 crop,” said Michael Cordonnier, president of
Soybean & Corn Advisor.

Cordonnier said that recent El Nino cycles resulted in good rains in southern Brazil and subsequently good yields as well. He pegs Brazil’s 2009-10 soybean crop at between 61 million-62 million tons. This could rise further if soybean prices continue an upward trend. Celso Oliveira, a meteorologist at local weather service Somar, said Brazil’s southern states should be helped by good rains.

“El Nino should bring double, triple or even more rain to the south of Brazil this year,” Oliveira said.

Source: CME News for Tomorrow
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