Wednesday, March 25, 2009

The Debts of the Spenders: AAA CMBX Update

While I have a very bearish bias, it would be remiss of me not to include some bullish analysis.

Here we can see that the AAA CMBX spreads continue to decline - a remarkable drop of almost 200 points since Monday, the beginning of the week!

Of course this is ONLY AAA. And the figures might be skewed juuuuust a little bit by Bernanke's "Cash for Trash" program of exchanging Treasuries for "AAA rated securities" (translation: the stuff that the issuers bribed Moody's and Standard and Poor's the most to rate highly).

But perceptionis reality in this market. In fact commercial real estate MAY (see legal disclaimer on side panel) be a good contrarian play in the coming weeks - if only because the Feds will guarantee payment.



Blog Archive