Monday, May 4, 2009

The Debts of the Lenders: Brazilian Soy Production Revised Downwards

Potentiall more upwards pressure for soybean bulls. Focus on the last paragraph. Please keep in mind that Brazil is #2 behind soybean production after the US. It's a minor decrease but any supply pressure can be taken as bullish.

DJ Brazil Southern States To End Soy Harvest This Week -Agrural

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul should complete their soy harvest this week, Eduardo Godoi, an analyst at consulting firm Agrural said Monday.

Parana, the No. 2 soy producing state, harvested 98% of its beans as of April 30, while Rio Grande do Sul harvested 89% of its crop, Godoi said.

The soy harvest in Rio Grande do Sul - traditionally the last to start - has been helped by the dry weather in March and April, Godoi told Dow Jones Newswires.

Brazil's total soy harvest was 92% complete as of April 30 compared to 87% the week before and 89% in the same period of 2008, according to Agrural.

Mato Grosso - the No. 1 soy producing state - Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo states have already finished their soy harvests. Most of the soy crop progressed well last week except in the northeast, which was lashed by rain, keeping the farmers out of the fields.

Brazil's Soy Production

Godoi said Agrural's earlier 2008-09 soy crop estimate is likely to be revised downward this week from 58.3 million metric tons. Brazil's expected production should be lowered due to a smaller crop in Rio Grande do Sul state, he said.

Although the hot, dry weather in March and April helped the harvest, it also dried out the beans leading to less volume. As a result, Rio Grande do Sul state is unlikely to reach Agrural's previous forecast of 8.6 million tons this year, he said.


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