Friday, May 8, 2009

The Debts of the Spenders: Soybean Supply Predicted to Tighten

Most grains (corn, wheat, and soybeans) w/the exception of rice (which closed lower) surged ahead of bullish fundamentals today. Next week holds some key releases from the USDA including its wheat and soy projections.

The crop progress report (to be released Monday) is projected to show continued ENSO wet conditions in the Midwest.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to cut its estimates for 2008-09 soybean ending stocks, with a strong export pace seen as the catalyst for the adjustment, according to analysts.

The USDA will also provide its first projections for the 2009-10 carryout when it releases its May supply and demand reports Tuesday.

The average of estimates from analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect 2008-09 U.S. ending stocks to come in below the previous month’s estimate of 165 million bushels. The average of analysts’ estimates surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires project 2008-09 marketing year ending stocks at 130 million bushels from a range of 86 million to 148 million bushels.

The USDA’s report is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Tuesday.

Analysts anticipate if the USDA makes changes to the 2008-09 balance sheet, it will adjust usage figures, with strong potential for an increase in exports.

Source: CME News for Tomorrow


The Prudent Investor said...

Welcome to the blogosphere. I am happy to see we share a mission to explain the financial babble of all the experts (who missed out to signal the worst downturn in history.) Added you to you my reading list as soft commodities are my blind spot. I only sense we're gonna see lots of dramatic action in this sector in the near future. Keep the world informed on the true green shoots.

In Debt We Trust said...

Thanks PI. I have been trading corn, wheat, and soybeans through ETF/ETNs mostly but am planning to switch over to options on futures soon. Just paper trading those now.

I suggest you get a free CME news for tomorrow subscription on the CME web site. It gives a great fundamental and t/a analysis of the ag markets at eod every day - straight from the pits.

Erik said...

JP, you should (if you want to of course), submit your next good article on Seeking Alpha, to get that "certification".

You are a good writer, (far better than I). Heck, I don't even use correct grammer most of the time. I have always been borderline illiterate. I have always been one of those top tier math/science, low tier english students.

Next good thoughts I have, I am going to be sending to seeking alpha tho, see what happens. Be nice to get that stamp to put on your blog, etc.


Anonymous said...

Thank you for all your contributions. Miss your posts on the SKF board. (I rarely post there, but still read it frequently, it has gotten a bit trashy since this "bull run") Would like your opinion on ADM or DBA for an IRA account. Thanks JP.

Keep up the great work, it will pay off.

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