Friday, July 24, 2009

The Debts of the Lenders: China Inflating BRIC Bubble Again

Excellent article from the Professor who quotes a variety of senior Chinese cadres on the economy. For more background, skip to the bottom and view an older story I wrote at the beginning of the month, "Chinese Power Struggle" :

There seems to be a serious debate among Chinese policymakers over the stimulus package.

The debate lists, on one side, people centered on the PBoC, the CBRC and the National Bureau of Statistics, who are worried that the stimulus may be exacerbating Chinese imbalances.

On the other side are people in the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce and in the provincial and municipal leadership who are more worried that any half-heartedness will lead to a significant rise in unemployment.



The key take away here is that China continues to be worried about preserving one-party rule. As an authoritarian regime whose legitimacy is increasingly being questioned (not least because the "Communist" moniker is widely derided) by both internal and external sources, political leaders are keen to co-opt opposition or crush them if necessary.

Recent events in Xinjiang SAR (Special Administrative Region) and Tibet point to growing unrest among ethnic and religious minorities. But a far larger problem is the potential domestic revolt among the huge floating pool of migrant workers. Historically, Chinese revolts have been triggered by peasants that overthrew the old emperor before installing a new dynasty.

China must also balance its future energy needs w/public diplomacy by continuing to acquire reliable sources in Central Asia, Siberia, Africa, and the Middle East. Once confined to a regional zone, Beijing is increasingly flexing its muscles against US spheres of influence. And its most powerful tool of diplomacy is not its nuclear arsenal but control over US finances in the bond markets.

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