Tuesday, September 29, 2009

The Debts of the World: Longer Term Outlook for Supply Chains is Bullish

This article addresses several points - key among them the recent thaw in corporate lending. What is not mentioned is the decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which measures freight rates and is often seen as a proxy for commodities' health.


Despite the BDI's abysmal fall, there are also some key issues developing, not the least among them, China's interest in Nigerian oil reserves:



Here is more info on the BDI. Basically, it's Econ 101, or supply and demand. Too much supply and not enough demand are creating fears of a potential glut. The earlier spike in the BDI this summer was due to slower than expected deliveries which helped temporarily alleviate said perception. Since then, the BDI has fallen nearly 50% from its June 3 peak:


Keep in mind though that nothing falls in a straight line forever. Despite dire stories such as this, the outlook is still positive. The BDI may pick up again if scheduled deliveries fail to manifest on time. Or, for more fundamental reasons, large buyers of commodities like China decide to continue importing raw materials.
blog comments powered by Disqus

Blog Archive