The Debts of the Spenders: El Nino Odds Greater Than 50%

Weather continues to dominate agriculture markets. Especially the sensitive S. American growing regions such as Argentina and Brazil which account for much of the soybean, wheat, and raw sugar (for Brazil) stock.

This is also good news for sugar bulls who have been anxiously awaiting word of a strong and wet monsoon season to affect S. Asian harvests.

Australian Bureau: Pacific Indicators Point To El Nino

Climate indicators in the Pacific Basin are consistent with the early stages of a developing El Nino episode, with computer forecasts increasingly showing this is a “distinct possibility” later this year, the Australian Government’s Bureau of Meteorology reported Wednesday.

“The odds of an El Nino are now thought to be above 50%, which is more than double the normal risk of an event,” the bureau said in a regular review of Pacific climate indicators. El Nino events are usually, but not always, associated with below-average rainfall in the calendar second half across much of southern and inland eastern Australia, it said.

Source: CME News For Tomorrow

Another adverse sign for Southeast Australian rainfall is a recent trend to positive values in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the bureau reported.