Tuesday, June 23, 2009

The Debts of the Spenders: Soybean Rust Fungus and Chinese Demand Compete for Volatile Trading

Early-mid July is cyclically and historically a very bullish period for soybeans. Add the Chinese comments and you have a you have a volatile situation.

Soybean Rust Seen As Far Greater Threat To 2009 US Crop

Delayed plantings and heavy spring rains have put much of the U.S. soybean
crop at an unusually high risk of damage from Asian soybean rust, a yield-robbing
fungus that has already begun to infect soybeans weeks earlier than ever before.

“These early finds mean that soybean rust could be a real threat to the soybean
crop, if the disease continues to progress,” said Iowa State University plant pathologist
Daren Mueller.

Thus far in 2009, soybean rust has been found in 23 counties of Alabama,
Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Texas. It infected a record 392 counties across 16
U.S. states in 2008, but caused little yield damage because the disease developed late
in the growing season.

“This can be a devastating plant disease. Yield losses of 40-50% are possible in
soybeans when the disease invades a field early...and no fungicides are used to prevent
spread of the pathogen,” warned Alabama plant pathologist Ed Sikora, after the
disease was found in an Alabama soybean plot June 8. The Alabama discovery
occurred seven weeks earlier than in 2008.

This year, in addition to developing sooner, the disease is also targeting a soybean
crop that was planted later than normal, providing the pathogen an even greater
window of opportunity. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Monday only 91%
of all intended soybean acreage had actually been seeded as of June 21, compared to
the seasonal average of 95%.

Source: CME News For Tomorrow

China Revises Down Jun Soybean Imports Estimate To 4.3M Tons

China’s Ministry of Commerce revised downward its estimate of soybean imports in June to 4.34 million metric tons from 4.617 million tons, a report on the ministry’s Web site said Tuesday.
Despite the revision, June soybean imports were still at a record monthly high. High volumes of recent soybean imports have sparked fears among market participants that supply will begin to pressure soybean prices.

China imported 3.52 million tons of soybeans in May, up 1.2% on year.

Source: CME News For Tomorrow
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