Saturday, June 13, 2009

The Debts of the Spenders: Forward Shipping Rates Warn of Potential Mass Deflation

Shipping rates remain in contango.

From the New York Times:

Richard S. Elman, the chief executive of the Noble Group, Asia’s largest diversified commodities trading company, bounced up from the conference table in his office here when asked about freight rates during an interview on Tuesday morning. He walked over to his desk, dominated by three computer screens that partly obscure a perfect view of Hong Kong’s harbor, and quickly punched up on one screen a list of daily charter rates for large bulk carrier freighters.

The list showed ship owners charging $58,000 a day now but just $24,000 a day for charters next year or in 2011 — an indication that there will be more ships than cargoes in the years ahead, particularly with shipyards still finishing vessels ordered during the recent boom. [emphasis my own].

Pointing to the rates for the next two years, he said, “That’s the real market” for ships.

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