The Debts of the World: ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) Update

As of Friday's close, forecasters remained skeptical of ENSO positive conditions but predictions released earlier in the week continued to dominate the tone of future predictions. In the end, it boils down to statistical (historic) modeling vs. dynamic (real time satellite) updates.

Synopsis: Conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009.

There continues to be considerable spread in the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5). All statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of 2009. However, most dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System, predict the onset of El Niño during June - August 2009. Current observations, recent trends, and the dynamical model forecasts indicate that conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html