The Debts of a Nation is a modern revision of "The Wealth of Nations" by Adam Smith.
Smith structured his arguments as a critique against the prevailing economic and political ideology of his time - mercantilism.
Under mercantilism European colonial powers amassed enormous amounts of gold and silver wealth through strict control of exports and the wholesale looting of foreign shores. Their colonists were locked in a cycle of indebtedness with financiers in their home countries.
Fast forward to the modern age. Not much has changed - except instead of specie wealth we have fiat based currencies based on overleveraged borrowing. Mercantilist trade imbalances still exist. Citizens continue to live under debt bondage. But this time, emerging markets are the ones financing trade imbalances through savings gluts.
The next few years will be a time of unknown risks surfacing. The majority of market pundits continue to operate under the assumption that all known risks have been contained. They still believe that the system's parameters can sufficiently contain the world's credit problems.
They still continue to believe in the debts of a nation.
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I normally don't post intra-day developments. But this action has got to take the cake for sheer craziness. The chart below measures the spread between the 2 and 30 year Treasuries . Apparently, traders are pricing in substantial inflation w/in a few months.
But, as always, when one side of the trade gets crowded, the potential for a contrarian reversal increases. Bailout Ben might just live up to his name.
The Debts of the Spenders: Treasury Intra-Day Update
I normally don't post intra-day developments. But this action has got to take the cake for sheer craziness. The chart below measures the spread between the 2 and 30 year Treasuries . Apparently, traders are pricing in substantial inflation w/in a few months.
But, as always, when one side of the trade gets crowded, the potential for a contrarian reversal increases. Bailout Ben might just live up to his name.